The Sandberg Team @ Ponte Vedra Key Realty
Real Estate Sales & Service in Nocatee, Ponte Vedra & Jacksonville, Florida
Del Webb Ponte Vedra Market Stats
Interested in learning how the market fared in your neighborhood? Drop us a line and we’ll send you the details…
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The housing market continues to evolve, in ways both expected and unexpected. The inventory squeeze is starting to loosen up a bit, and interest rates have inched slightly downward. Somewhat surprisingly, however, that has not led to a great influx of buyers.
In Del Webb Ponte Vedra, there are additional pressures on housing. For one, the buyer pool is limited to those aged 55 or older. And Del Webb Nocatee is right down the road, offering new construction homes and a broader, potentially more attractive list of amenities than are available in Del Webb Ponte Vedra.
So, what does that mean for actual home sales year over year? Let’s take a look:
So, as expected, we did see an improvement in inventory. What we didn’t see was a major improvement in sales:
Granted, sales being just 3% off is not a bad statistic, but given how much more inventory is available, you’d think that closed sales would be a little higher.
Which brings us to another interesting statistic..days on market.
Lastly, we can look at absorption rate, which is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current sales rate. This rate changes month by month, of course, but it’s somewhat illuminating to see a 2.8 month rate of absorption in Dec. of 2023 compared to 8.4 months in Dec. of 2024.
In short, the pendulum has swung much more forcefully toward a buyer’s market in 2024, and that trend looks like to continue for the foreseeable future.
If you’d like to learn more about the housing market in your neighborhood, or a community where you’re house-hunting, drop us a note below:
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How’s the market? It’s a question we as agents get asked pretty frequently. Rather than rely on anecdotal evidence, or the somewhat limited scope of the communities we’re currently working in, I prefer to take a higher level look at what the data show. So, let’s take a look at some key stats for the county in the month of August:
Prices were up 3% from August of 2023…but we can see a downward trend beginning in April 2024, with prices down nearly 5% from July of this year. On the upside, this could be an indicator of a more balanced market on the horizon.
Closed sales paints a similar picture to sales price from above…sales are up just slightly from the same time last year, but a downward trend beginning in May extended through August, with closed sales down ~8% from July.
Inventory certainly has an impact on pricing. When inventory is scarce, prices tend to go up. Now, with inventory up 78% from the same time last year, we’re seeing prices drop. That said, prices may not have dropped enough just yet to see a big surge in buying…and interest rates certainly aren’t helping the cause.
Months supply of inventory, sometimes called “absorption rate”, is another key indicator. When the months supply of inventory is low, as it was at this time last year, it can be said we were firmly in a seller’s market. As supply of inventory creeps upward, we’re getting closer to a 6-month supply, which is generally considered a balanced market.
It’s definitely not 2022 anymore, when homes were flying off the shelves in a matter of days (and that sort of market had it’s own unique challenges). Homes now are sitting on the market quite a bit longer, as buyers have the luxury of waiting for prices to come down, but also the stress of waiting for interest rates to follow suit. For sellers, it can be a difficult question of motivation…
Finally, we look at unsold listings, which are listings that either expired when the term specified in the listing agreement ran out, or when the property was voluntarily withdrawn from the market. In many cases, this might mean that the seller was unwilling, or unable, to price the home at market value, that is, what a buyer is willing to pay.
As the year wears on, we’ll see the market continue to evolve. Good news is that the Federal Reserve Board has hinted at a willingness to lower interest rates in the near future. Also, we’ll be able to move beyond the election, which brings volatility to the market every four years, no matter who’s running.
Want to understand what’s happening a little closer to home in your neighborhood? Drop us a line and we’ll give you the stats…
Based on the recent Sitzer-Burnett class action lawsuit, Realtors® will be required to change the way they do business with home buyers and sellers. While the goal of the settlement is to create more transparency and fairness in real estate transactions, it will take some time for consumers and agents to adjust to this new landscape.
We’ll go into greater detail around what this all means later in this document, but these are the most notable changes that we’ll all need to be aware of:
What This Means for Home Sellers
In the past, in order for a home to be listed in the MLS, sellers would have to make at least some offer of compensation to buyer’s agents, even if it was only a dollar. Going forward, that requirement will be removed, and sellers won’t even have to offer any compensation to a buyer’s agent, if they so choose. That said, sellers are free to offer compensation to buyer’s agents, whether in the form of a traditional commission (2.5% on the closing price of the home, for example) or as a concession to the buyer that they can use however they like (e.g., $5,000 towards buyer fees, whether closing costs, rate buydown or buyer’s agent commission).
See NAR’s Guidance on What the Settlement Means for Sellers
What This Means for Home Buyers
Buyers who want the expertise of a real estate agent to help them navigate the home buying process will have to a) sign a Buyer Broker Agreement (BBA) with a specific agent before that agent can show them any homes, and b) specify how much in compensation they will pay their buyer’s agent for those services. Note that BBA can be for a single property/showing or extend to a more comprehensive agreement allowing the buyer’s agent to show the customer multiple properties that meet their criteria, much as traditional agent/consumers relationships work today. The BBA can be limited by a specific timeframe (30 days, 6 months, or less, or more) or a specific number of properties. All of these terms, including the commission rate, are completely negotiable.
See NAR’s Guidance on What the Settlement Means for Buyers
What This Means for Realtors®
One of the biggest challenges for agents will be determining how much commission, if any, a seller is offering to a buyer’s agent on the sale of their home. You can imagine how important this information will be to a potential buyer who will need to negotiate how much they will pay to their buyer’s agent. For first time homebuyers, the challenge may be even greater, as they can be struggling to come up with the funds for a down payment and are now in a position where they may have to pay their buyer’s agent directly, as well. How this will impact home prices/sales, is anyone’s guess. On a side note, while no offers of compensation will be made available in the MLS, The Sandberg Team will be posting any buyer’s agent compensation offers made by our seller customers on our website, and other online sites as allowed, in order to cast the widest net possible for potential buyers.
So that’s it, in a nutshell. How much this decision truly upends the way homes have been bought and sold in the US for the last 100 years or more remains to be seen. One thing that’s certain, however, is that there will be more changes to come as agents, buyers and sellers learn how to navigate in this new model. Ultimately, we believe this will be a change for the better for consumers, while agents will have to lean into their training, experience and sound relationships with other agents to continue to provide the best service and counsel to their customers.
Interested in market stats for a specific neighborhood? Drop us a line and we’ll send you the latest info…